Middle East Conflict Devastates Global Air & Sea Cargo: 52% Volume Plunge, Capacity Crunch Worsens

The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East has delivered a severe blow to global freight networks, with air cargo volumes at regional airports collapsing by more than half and ocean freight facing unprecedented disruptions amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

According to a new assessment by Airports Council International Asia-Pacific & Middle East (ACI APAC & MID), cargo throughput at nine major airports across the region fell to 571,000 tonnes in March and April 2026 — a 52% year-on-year drop representing a loss of 620,000 tonnes. March was the worst month, with volumes plunging 59% to 259,000 tonnes, while April remained deeply depressed at 312,000 tonnes, still 43% below 2025 levels.

The closures have removed approximately 16–18% of global air cargo capacity with almost no warning. ACI APAC & MID noted that the restrictions effectively removed nearly one-fifth of all East-West connecting capacity from the global aviation network within hours of the conflict‘s outbreak. The financial toll has been equally severe, with the nine airports facing an estimated US$900 million to US$1 billion revenue shortfall — a 55% loss of anticipated revenue.

The airspace closures have forced carriers to reroute flights, extending transit times significantly and driving up operating costs. The South African Association of Freight Forwarders (Saaff) and Business Unity SA (Busa) reported that flight rerouting and increasing reliance on cross-border trucking have caused freight rate increases across affected trade lanes. “About 40% of Asia-Europe air cargo capacity has been affected,” the update stated, noting that “tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell by 70–80%,” tightening the availability of refined products such as jet fuel. Europe is particularly exposed due to its reliance on Persian Gulf supply, while higher insurance costs and longer rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope are pushing fuel premiums higher.

Global air cargo demand declined 4.8% year-on-year in March 2026, with Middle East and Africa export volumes dropping 24%. European demand fell 5%, and Asia Pacific slipped 4%, though intra-Asia trade grew 7% and Latin America posted 9% export growth. DHL Global Forwarding’s April Air Freight Market Update warned that volatility is expected to persist, with tight effective capacity, high operating costs, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty keeping markets unstable through the coming months.

On the maritime front, the crisis has been even more dramatic. Military escalation involving Iran has effectively halted most tanker and container movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments. Vessel transits have fallen by roughly 97%. Major carriers have suspended voyages or diverted to alternative hubs, increasing voyage distances and operational complexity.

CMA CGM has introduced an Emergency Conflict Surcharge of $2,000 per 20-foot container, $3,000 per 40-foot container, and $4,000 for reefers — a measure that applies not only to Gulf cargo but also to Red Sea ports across Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Djibouti, Sudan, and Eritrea. Industry-wide, Emergency Conflict Surcharges now range from $2,000 to $4,000 per container across affected trade lanes, with the combined impact of base rate increases and supplementary surcharges meaning that the actual all-in cost of shipping a container on some routes has more than doubled from pre-crisis levels.

The rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10 to 14 days and 3,500 to 4,000 nautical miles to affected voyages. Container lines have suspended Suez Canal transits and reverted to the Cape detour, a significant shift given that some carriers had only recently resumed using the Red Sea after the earlier Houthi disruption. Industry analysts estimate that approximately 300,000 TEU of capacity remains trapped within the Persian Gulf, equivalent to about 0.9% of the global container fleet.

Commodity markets have added further pressure. Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) have traded at approximately $100 per barrel, driven by heightened tensions and Iran‘s reiterated threats to target maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency’s 32 member states, along with the United States, have released emergency oil reserves in an effort to calm price volatility.

Global containerized throughput moderated after December‘s record volumes, with January volumes declining by about 5.4% month-on-month to roughly 16 million TEUs, though trade remained 3.6% higher year-on-year — indicating that underlying demand remains relatively resilient despite logistical disruptions.

ACI APAC & MID has warned that Middle East airports continue to shoulder a disproportionate and sustained burden due to their central role in global connectivity. “The military conflict has pushed the global air transport network under acute stress,” the association said. For freight forwarders, importers, and logistics operators, the message is clear: capacity will remain tight, rates will stay elevated, and supply chain volatility is likely to persist through the second quarter and beyond.